Last year, we here at The A.V. Club took on the task of placing odds on which Top Chef all-star would win season 17 of the Bravo reality culinary competition. We accurately predicted that one of the runner-ups (Bryan Voltaggio) would be successful, but weren’t as prophetic when it came to winner Melissa King (we placed her directly in the middle of the pack). For season 18, Top Chef: Portland, we’re taking another stab at the prediction game—this time ranking the chefs from least likely to most likely to win the title of Top Chef.
For what host and judge Padma Lakshmi believes is the first time, there are no sous chefs among the crop of 15 cheftestants. That means all the chefs are the leaders in their respective kitchens, so past experience isn’t much help in narrowing the field. Instead, we only have the season 18 premiere, which aired March 31, to guide our thoughts. It may mean we’re eating our under-cooked gnocchi by the end of the second episode, but here are our best guesses of who won’t be asked to pack their knives and go.