This Sunday, April 14, for the very last time, a season of Game Of Thrones will begin. And then, five Sundays later, for the very last time, a season of Game Of Thrones will end. But finality’s always been baked into Game Of Thrones’ king-sized pie of epic fantasy, political intrigue, and things you can’t do, say, or show on broadcast television, hasn’t it? Dynasties get snuffed out, campaigns for the Iron Throne are squashed, and so, so, so many people die.
But death isn’t always an occasion for mourning. Sometimes in the seven kingdoms, it’s a spectator sport. And ever since season six, The A.V. Club has made it the object of speculation with the help of Benjamin Eckstein, nationally syndicated oddsmaker and owner of the website America’s Line. (He’s also on Twitter as @vegasvigorish.) Once more under his sage guidance, we’re proud to present the odds for You Win Or You Die, The A.V. Club’s weekly Game Of Thrones dead pool. All men must die, all men must serve—here’s hoping that those you bet on serve by dying.
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: Don’t think the war will happen in episode one. We’re gonna get a slow build to the violence, much like Sam Peckinpah did in the classic movie Straw Dogs. Of course, if the war starts, the over/under would be 29,482 deaths.
The A.V. Club says: The fireworks are clearly being held for later episodes, but it is Game Of Thrones, and there are only six episodes left
Note: Bets placed here stay active throughout the course of the show.
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: We would bet the under, thinking that episode two is when the reveal comes.
The A.V. Club says: Picture this: It’s the last episode. Jon and Daenerys sit side by side in The Great Hall. Samwell Tarly stands to Jon’s right, his grand maester. Sam makes a face like he’s suddenly remembered something. He leans over and whispers into Jon’s ear. Jon has a similarly stunned reaction. Iris out to credits, as the Curb Your Enthusiasm theme plays.
2-1 The Night King kills Jon
10-1 Jon kills the Night King
50-1 The Night King kills Jaime
50-1 Jamie kills the Night King
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: Sure the Night King might kill Jon, but let’s not forget, the Snow Man was killed once, and made his way back. And don’t waste your money on the Night King killing Jamie, or vice versa, ‘’cause that ain’t gonna happen.
The A.V. Club says: Though it would be poetic justice, given Jaime’s “Kingslayer” moniker and redemptive arc.
Previous prophecies for profit that are still in play:
5-1 Jon will slay the ice dragon
25-1 Bran is the Night King
2-1 The Hound emerges victorious in CleganeBowl.
5-1 The Mountain emerges victorious in CleganeBowl.
10-1 Someone else wins CleganeBowl.
3-1 Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryen will sit on the throne together at the end of the series.
4-5 Jaime Lannister kills Cersei
2-1 Arya kills Cersei
8-1 Tyrion Lannister kills Cersei
6-5 Anyone else kills Cersei
6-5 Drogon dies from poison absorbed through his arrow wound
3-1 Euron is the father of Cersei’s baby
5-1 Jaime is the father of Cersei’s baby
10-1 The Mountain is the father of Cersei’s baby
100-1 Cersei has a dragon baby
$5 on Jon and Dany finding out how gross their love is in the premiere. $5 on Ser Davos biting it.
$10 on Tormund, $10 on Euron, $5 on Berric, $30 on the Jon-Daenerys under, $5 on Jon killing the Night King, $5 on The Night King killing Jaime
$5 Berric, $5 Qyburn, $20 under on Jon and Daenerys learning they’re related.
$5 on Melisandre dying, $10 on Jon/Dany learning they’re related after 2.5 episodes
$5 on Berric, $5 on Tormund, $5 on Melisandre, and $5 on the under for When do Jon and Daenerys learn they’re related?
$5 on Euron (I’m not super-jazzed about his storyline anyway, so I figure he’s gonna die). $5 on Berric (he’s def going to die, probably saving The Hound). $10 on Melisandre (she said he had to die in this strange land so—she’s gonna die, and if it’s not by fire I feel like she’s gonna be pissed while dying). $10 on Jaime killing the Night King (I’d really love for this to happen so this is just wishful thinking). $7 on the Jon/Daenerys over.
$20 on Hound winning Cleagane Bowl after being bright back to life by Berric. $30 on Jon kills the Night King and Milesandre being Nissa Nissa and Long Claw being turned into Light Bringer after they kill her with it. $10 on Jamie kills Cersei (and Qyburn for that matter). $5 on Jon/Danny’s relation being revealed over 2.5 episodes, but I think it’ll be like, 10 to 20 minutes over 2.5 episodes. $1 on Cersei has a dragon baby because that’s silly.
Deaths: $10 Tormund, $10 Euron. $20 under Jon/Daenerys find out they’re related.