Arya's got a stick and she's not afraid to use it.
You Win Or You DieThe A.V. Club’s weekly dead pool where we place our bets on who we think will die in this week’s Game Of Thrones episode.   

Plenty of people died last Sunday on Game Of Thrones, including one shock comedian who got his head bashed in by that giant gold guy who’s probably The Mountain. Unfortunately for the staff of The A.V. Club, though, no one who died was included in our weekly Thrones dead pool, meaning we all gambled away fake Westeros bucks for naught.

That could change this week, though, as we’ve expanded our Thrones dead pool thanks to national syndicated odds maker Benjamin Eckstein, owner of betting odds site America’s Line. He’s provided us with a whole list of odds on who’ll die this week on Thrones, as well as a few other probable outcomes. A.V. Club staffers will bet accordingly with fake Westeros money, hoping that, if all men must die, at least one that we pick dies this weekend. We’ll keep track of each staffer’s individual Iron Bank accounts over the whole season, and the winner gets some prize that’s as yet to be determined. Let’s just say it’s having their desk chair made into a faux Iron Throne.


2-1 The Waif

The Waif, right, with Arya.

The oddsmaker says: You can only hit a Stark so many times before they kill you.

The A.V. Club says: Can a resident of the House Of Black And White ever really die? We’re dubious.


3-1 Alliser Thorne

The oddsmaker says: They’re going to kill him. It’s just a matter of when.

The A.V. Club says: The fact that he didn’t die last week was just ridiculous. He’ll go eventually, one way or another. Maybe Jon Snow can do it, now that he’s back with the living—or the ex-dead.


5-1 Tommen Baratheon

The oddsmaker says: He’s such a mama’s boy… He does nothing.

The A.V. Club says: Tommen’s whereabouts are listed in the DirecTV guide for this weekend’s episode (“Daenerys meets her future; Bran meets the past; Tommen confronts the High Sparrow; Arya trains to be No One; Varys finds an answer; Ramsay gets a gift.”), and while that doesn’t necessarily mean anything, it doesn’t seem like he’s going to get offed—at least by the High Sparrow.


6-1 Jorah Mormont

The oddsmaker says: Obviously, with the grayscale creeping up his arms and legs…

The A.V. Club says: It feels like he’s got a few more episodes to go before he gets it. After all, no one’s even found out he’s got greyscale, and he hasn’t accidentally given it to anyone, which feels like an inevitability.


8-1 Theon Greyjoy

The oddsmaker says: He did what he had to do, though now I’m getting the sense that he’s going back to the Iron Kingdom… I really think he’s going to get killed by Ramsay, though. And then Yara is going to kill Ramsay.


The A.V. Club says: While we’re not necessarily down with Benjamin’s assertion there—why would Ramsay kill Theon when he takes so much more pleasure in seeing him suffer?—it does seem like his time is running out.

10-1 Ramsay Bolton


The oddsmaker says: Just in case Theon does a little bit of magic.

The A.V. Club says: Dude can’t die. He’s the devil incarnate, if not even a little worse, and this show needs a big, bad villain.

10-1 No one from our list dies this week


The oddsmaker says: That’s a good chance, because they’re always doing something.

The A.V. Club says: No one from our list died last week, but that could just be because Thrones has so many damn characters.

20-1 The High Sparrow


The oddsmaker says: He’s going. Someone’s going to kill him, but not right now. He probably has another handful of episodes left.

The A.V. Club says: There’s no obvious High Sparrow successor yet, and that seems like something you’d have to have before he kicks the bucket.

25-1 Podrick Payne


The oddsmaker says: Nothing, just like Podrick.

The A.V. Club says: He might be Brienne’s right hand man, but he’s kind of just hanging out in the background all the same.

25-1 Olly


The oddsmaker says: He was complicit.

The A.V. Club says: If Alliser’s going, Olly’s going. There’s no rehabilitating him, no matter how much mercy Jon Snow has.

30-1 Brienne Of Tarth


The oddsmaker says: Kind of a longer shot.

The A.V. Club says: She hasn’t even seen Sansa to her destination yet. She’s got a few more episodes to go.

40-1 Varys


The oddsmaker says: Also kind of a long shot.

The A.V. Club says: Varys seems like one of those characters that’ll be around to the very last episode, when we’ll flash forward and see him dying old and gray, smiling in his sleep.

40-1 Grey Worm


The oddsmaker says: Meh.

The A.V. Club says: He’s been a bit of a minor player, but if the Meereen gang needs anything, he’ll be the one to put himself on the line to get it done.

50-1 Jaime Lannister


The oddsmaker says: He’s going at some point, but not yet.

The A.V. Club says: He’s too handsome to die.

75-1 Margaery Tyrell


The oddsmaker says: She’s too strong. If she can survive that prison, she’s going to stay around for a while.

The A.V. Club says: We’re going to agree with Benjamin here. She’s still got some shit to kick and names to take.

100-1 Sansa Stark
100-1 Any of the dragons


The oddsmaker says: They’re the least likely to go.

The A.V. Club says: There are three dragons and now that two of them are unchained and one is just out on the town, it’s anyone’s guess what those crazy cats are going to get up to. They seem more killable than Sansa, at any rate.

100-1 Melisandre


The oddsmaker says: Please give me the names of the staffers that wanna bet on the red priestess. I’ll book the bets and be happy to take their money.

The A.V. Club says: Some of us think she’s done for. Some of us think she’ll never die. It all depends on the Lord Of Light, we suppose.

Non-dead pool related odds
(Note: These can happen at any point during the season.)

6-5 The Hound comes back to life


The oddsmaker says: Oh hell yeah. He’s going to have a humongous, epic fight with The Mountain, who’s his brother, and he’s going to kill The Mountain. What is dead may never die.

The A.V. Club says: Game Of Thrones has done crazier stuff, so who knows?

3-1 Daenerys Targaryen sleeps with Khal Moro, and then kills him


The oddsmaker says: Let’s call it the black widow effect. If she doesn’t kill him, she’ll have the dragon kill him.

The A.V. Club says: It is punishable by death to sleep with a Khal’s widow, so she’d be justified.

Over/Under on deaths in this week’s episode: 4½

The oddsmaker says: They have to be at least major or minor characters, not people dying in a wildling attack, or when a giant slams people against a wall. It has to be a named person.


The A.V. Club says: That seems fair.

Our picks this week are:

Erik Adams ($80 in his bank): $5 on Olly, $10 on the under.
David Anthony ($50): $10 on no one dying.
Danette Chavez ($80): $10 on Thorne.
Marah Eakin ($80) : $1 on one of the dragons, $2 on Thorne, $2 on no one dying, and $5 on Olly. “Once I lose some cash, I’m a wimpy better, but I like these odds.”
Alex McCown ($100, because we let him join late): $10 on no one dying.
Josh Modell ($75): $10 on Melisandre, $5 on Olly, $5 on no one dying. “I’m going down swinging.”
Caity PenzeyMoog ($70): $10 on Melisandre, $1 on Podrick Payne, $3 on Thorne, $1 on The Hound coming back to life, $5 on the under. “Now that we know how old Melisandre is, she’s going to die.”
Katie Rife ($80): $10 on Olly, “because fuck that kid,” and $5 on Melisandre.
John Teti ($80): $79 on Olly.
Nick Wanserski ($50): $10 on Thorne, $5 on the under. “I’m already down by half, so I’ve got to rein it in if I’m going to make it to the end-of-season murdertopia. But Thorne is overdue.”