Though people are always dying in Westeros, things have been a little slow for the last two weeks for our Game Of Thrones dead pool. Sure, Ian McShane’s Septon Ray got offed last week, but we barely knew him. His death worked out well for a good number of us bettors, though, considering that it both fulfilled the under and worked toward our “no one on our list” bet, which paid off big at 75-1 odds. Nick Wanserski has taken over John Teti on our leaders board, but with only three episodes left in this season of Thrones, it’s anyone’s guess as to who’ll assume our office’s iron throne when all is said and done.
First, we’ve got to get through this week’s episode, “No One.” As always, we’ve consulted nationally syndicated oddsmaker Benjamin Eckstein, owner of America’s Line. He’s weighed in with his well-thought-out odds below, and those of you who are playing along at home can do so via A.V. Club reader Craig R. Wright’s well-run TV Deadpool site, which he created just for this fun feature.
The oddsmaker says: Lancel’s the favorite this week. He slept with Cersei, and he’s a Lannister, but he lost his mind and joined the Faith. Now, as far as I see it, he’s going to be chosen to represent the Faith in a battle against The Mountain, and he’ll get pulverized.
The A.V. Club says: The Mountain might pulverize Lancel, but it won’t necessarily be in a big drawn-out battle—at least that’s what we think. Either way, Lancel’s no match for that heaping helping of muscle and monstrosity.
4-1 Septa Unella
The oddsmaker says: Everyone knows how I feel about her. Drinks in Vegas are on me when she gets it.
The A.V. Club says: She’s on the chopping block, too, alongside Lancel. They’ll go eventually. As always, the question is just about whether it’s this week.
5-1 Any of the Tullys
The A.V. Club says: Edmure and the Blackfish certainly seem to be living on borrowed time in this week’s teaser.
10-1 The Mountain
10-1 The Hound
The oddsmaker says: The Mountain has to do his thing against Lancel, and the epic death match against his brother is not until next week. As far as The Hound goes, I would hope they can do something about his comb-over. It’s pathetic. They can do better.
The A.V. Club says: Again, we’re not sure we’re buying the big Mountain-Lancel battle as the trial by combat, but we’re also not sure this is his week to go, either. If we’re talking about #CleganeBowl at some point, then it’s probably going to take a week or so for The Hound to get from wherever he is to King’s Landing.
10-1 The Waif
The oddsmaker says: I had to up the odds on this one because she’s a tricky son of a bitch.
The A.V. Club says: She got her digs in at Arya last week, and she won’t give up. It’s just a matter of who wins.
10-1 Jaqen H’ghar
The oddsmaker says: I’m not sure that he’s going to leave, and even if he does, that doesn’t mean he left. He’s also a tricky bastard, too.
The A.V. Club says: Very true. All his blood would probably drain out of his body and into some other sort of corporeal form.
10-1 Any of the Greyjoys
The oddsmaker says: This is a good value for a bunch of seafaring mongrels.
The A.V. Club says: If they kill Yara, the internet will scream. You can’t confirm a character as being gay one week just to off them the next.
10-1 Any of the Lannisters, not including Lancel
The oddsmaker says: I would normally make it higher, but we might get a huge shock this week and lose the Kingslayer.
The A.V. Club says: Benjamin might be making that last part up. Would Jaime get such an inglorious death? Tommen—who’s technically a Baratheon, but not for these purposes—and Kevan are still looking a little weak, though.
10-1 The High Sparrow
The oddsmaker says: I was thinking of making him lower, but then I thought, “If they didn’t lop his head off on the steps, he’ll last at least one more week.”
The A.V. Club says: Is he even in the preview for this week? We’re betting he lives to see another day.
12-1 Brienne Of Tarth
The oddsmaker says: The Big B needs to get a little cuddle from her man still.
The A.V. Club says: Brienne doesn’t need a man to validate her. But if it comes down to her and Jaime, then things could get hairy.
The oddsmaker says: He could go get killed by tripping on a twig. He’s not really the warrior type.
The A.V. Club says: That’s true. What’s he really bringing to the table?
The oddsmaker says: He’s such an outstanding character. I wish I were Bronn.
The A.V. Club says: Don’t we all? He’s still owed an estate and a beautiful high-born wife, so let’s hope it’s not his time this week.
15-1 Any of the Tyrells
The oddsmaker says: Margaery, never. If they kill Diana Rigg I’ll never watch again. Loras, who cares. He should have been dead three episodes ago.
The A.V. Club says: That’s fair. This all evens out.
50-1 Arya Stark
The oddsmaker says: After getting shivved by the Waif and losing a ton of blood, she finally remembers that she’s a freaking Stark. No death here.
The A.V. Club says: She’s looking pretty injured, but that’s never stopped anyone on Thrones from sticking it out before. Just ask The Hound.
50-1 No one on this list
The oddsmaker says: Someone’s going to die. Death is knocking on my flatscreen.
The A.V. Club says: After the drought we’ve had, it seems likely that we’ll get some big blowout this week. But will the dearly departed be on our list? With these odds, that’s a bet we’re willing to take.
Over/under on total deaths: 5.5
The oddsmaker says: I expect things to drip with blood this week.
Prophecies for profit:
25-1 Lady Stoneheart emerges this week
The oddsmaker says: It sounds interesting and it’s a nice prophecy, but it just seems like a long shot. They’ve already brought back a bunch of people and I don’t know that they need to bring her back. Her kids are already out there doing their things.
The A.V. Club says: The evidence that’s out there is pretty convincing, especially with Brienne’s “honor bound” claims in this week’s episode trailer. That being said, you’d think it would have gotten out if undead Catelyn Stark was going to make an appearance this season.
5-1 Bran, Jon Snow, and Sansa end up together at the end of the season.
3-1 Jon Snow will find a dragon inside the wall and ride it. It’ll spit ice instead of fire.
3-1 Rickon’s direwolf did not really die. It’s a trick!
3-1 Daenerys Targaryen sleeps with Khal Moro and then kills him. (Nope. —ed.)
6-5 The Hound comes back to life. (Yep. —ed.)
Our picks this week are:
Nick Wanserski ($4,275 in his bank): $250 on Lancel, $250 on the Waif, $100 on any Tully, $250 on the under, and $150 on nobody on the list. “All men must die, but probably not until the ninth episode.”
John Teti ($1,878): $800 on the Waif, $100 on no one, and $100 on the Lady Stoneheart prop bet.
Josh Modell ($1,775): $150 on The Mountain, $300 on the Waif, $500 on the under, and $100 on Lady Stoneheart.
Caity PenzeyMoog ($1,751.20, because of the 6-5 odds on The Hound’s return finally paying out): $500 on Arya, $500 on the Waif, $100 on Lancel, $100 on the under, $50 on no one, $50 on Septa Unella, $50 on Lady Stoneheart. “Time to see if a crazy theory pays off.”
Marah Eakin ($983): $200 on Lady Stoneheart, $200 on Lancel, $10 on no one, $100 on the Waif, $100 on the Tullys. “With only three episodes left, I’ve got to go big to catch up to Nick, so I’m making my move.”
Katie Rife ($465): $10 on The Mountain, $10 on the Waif, and $10 on The Hound
Erik Adams ($385): $200 on Lancel, $100 on any of the Tullys, $80 on no one.
Alex McCown ($115): $10 on Lady Stoneheart, $10 on Bronn, $10 on no one. “Staying afloat until the big finale.”
Danette Chavez ($60): $10 on Lancel, $10 on the return of Lady Stoneheart. “I know this is peanuts to the rest of you.”
David Anthony has once again squandered all his money and is finally really dead. R.I.P. Ser David.