Welcome back to You Win Or You Die, The A.V. Club’s weekly dead pool where we place our bets on who we think will die in this week’s Game Of Thrones episode. Every week, the talented and genial Benjamin Eckstein, oddsmaker and owner of America’s Line, provides the odds. We can also place “prophecies for profit” bets, which carry throughout the season. At the end of the season, one A.V. Club staffer will pay off the Iron Bank with their fake Westerosi bucks and sit on the nonexistent Iron Throne. As always, you can play along at home via the TV Deadpool site.
Valar Morghulis to John Teti, who went for broke on Jaime Lannister’s demise last week. The Kingslayer managed to swim the length of a lake underwater in heavy armor, defying the odds and dooming John to our players’ graveyard.
Here are this week’s odds:
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: If, as we expect, Thoros does, then Beric has to go, because Thoros isn’t there to save him and bring him back.
The A.V. Club says: There’s speculation in this office that Beric is Azor Ahai. (Or maybe it’s The Hound.) Either way, we can see Beric surviving, but Thoros getting the skeleton ax.
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: He just came back and he just has to die.
The A.V. Club says: No way, dude. Gendry’s here to stay.
8-1 Jorah Mormont
10-1 Tormund Giantsbane
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: He might make it to King’s Landing.
The A.V. Club says: It all really depends on how good he is at fighting wights. We’re skeptical.
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: Anyone that wants to come between two sisters, I will kill.
The A.V. Club says: He’ll make it at least another week.
20-1 The Hound or The Mountain
Eckstein the oddsmaker says: It won’t happen until the last episode. One more week until the CleganeBowl.
The A.V. Club says: The Hound is headed north, so he’s in danger. The Mountain’s such a non-entity right now that we think he’ll probably survive.
8-1 The Field: Jon Snow, Meera, Bronn, Euron Greyjoy, anyone at Dragonstone, anyone at Winterfell who’s not Littlefinger, Melisandre
Prophecies for profit:
Note: Bets placed here stay active throughout the course of the show.
Maggy The Frog said Cersei would have three kids and they’d all die. Assuming Cersei is really pregnant, who’s the father?
5-1 Jaime Lannister
10-1 The Mountain
100-1 Cersei has a dragon baby.
Previous prophecies for profit that are still in play:
2-1 The Hound emerges victorious in CleganeBowl.
5-1 The Mountain emerges victorious in CleganeBowl.
10-1 Someone else wins CleganeBowl.
3-1 Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryen will sit on the throne together at the end of the series.
Over/under on episodes in which Cersei remains on the Iron Throne: 8.5.
Over/under on how many episodes until Jon Snow’s true parentage is revealed to him: 5.5.
4-5 Jaime Lannister kills Cersei
2-1 Arya kills Cersei
8-1 Tyrion Lannister kills Cersei
6-5 Anyone else kills Cersei
6-5 Drogon dies from poison absorbed through his arrow wound.
Over/under on total deaths of named characters this week: 3.5
Our picks this week are:
Emi Tolibas ($1,864 Westerosi bucks in the bank): $300 on Thoros, $200 on the under, and $10 on the field.
Leo Garcia ($1,010): $5 on Thoros, $5 on Beric, $10 on Gendry, $10 on Jorah, $10 on Tormund, $10 on The Hound, $20 on the field, $30 on the under. “Re: Maggy The Frog’s prophecy about Cersei: For me, life doesn’t begin at conception. Cersei won’t live long enough to become a mother for the fourth time.”
Danette Chavez ($115): $5 on Beric, $5 on Thoros, and $5 on the field.
Kristi-Lynn Jacovino ($112): $15 on Beric, $5 on Jorah (“coin in hand”), $5 on Littlefinger (“wishful thinking”), $5 on the field.
Marah Eakin ($110): $20 on Tormund, $20 on Thoros, $20 on Beric, $30 on the field.
Caity PenzeyMoog ($101): $5 on Jorah, $5 on Thoros, $5 on Beric, $10 on the field, $10 on the under.
Karl Blomberg ($100): $20 on the field, $20 on the under
Grace Thomas ($70): $40 on Thoros, $20 On Jaime being the father, $10 on the field.
Alex McLevy ($5): $2 on Beric.