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Welcome back to You Win Or You Die, The A.V. Club’s weekly Game Of Thrones dead pool. Each week, with the help of the talented and genial Benjamin Eckstein—oddsmaker, owner of America’s Line, and keeper of a new Instagram page—we’ll be placing bets on who we think will make it through the coming weekend’s episode of Thrones. We can also place “prophecies for profit” bets, which carry throughout the season. At the end of the season, one A.V. Club staffer will reign supreme, sitting atop our nonexistent Iron Throne. As always, you can play along at home via the TV Deadpool site.

As viewers know, last week’s Thrones left three main characters in mortal limbo, while summarily offing a couple others. This week, Leo Garcia sits atop our temporary Iron Throne, with $160—though others are close behind. It’s just week three, but maybe this is when the big direwolves will really start to separate from the rest of the pack.

As always, we’ll start with our morbidly fascinating death odds:

1-5 Tyene Sand

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: She’s the biggest favorite we’ve ever had. Take your kids’ college fund and bet on this. She’ll be killed by Cersei in front of her mother.

The A.V. Club says: It’s shocking she’s not dead already.

4-1 Yara Greyjoy

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: She’s not long for the world.

The A.V. Club says: We can’t argue with that.

5-1 Ellaria Sand

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: They’re going to keep her around for maybe another episode or two, but obviously she has to go. Cersei will do something really evil to her in this next episode, I think.

The A.V. Club says: While Cersei’s evilness is certain, whether she’ll actually off Ellaria this episode is, as Eckstein says, certainly a question. She could keep Ellaria around just to torture, à la the shame nun.

8-1 The Hound

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: I have not heard from the UFC, so I don’t think The Hound and The Mountain are gonna rumble this week… But you never know…

The A.V. Club says: The dude has become lovable—even though Arya removed him from her kill list, what if she accidentally kills him? She’d feel really bad. Sounds like a good plot point.

10-1 Davos

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: He has no magic.

The A.V. Club says: Say it ain’t so. Davos has our hearts.

12-1 Grey Worm

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: After last week with Missandei, he really has nothing to live for.

The A.V. Club says: What about love? He has love to live for!

15-1 Melisandre

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: Unlike Davos, Melisandre still has some magic.

The A.V. Club says: That’s true. Maybe she’s served her purpose now that she’s hit Daenerys with that prophecy.

20-1 Dickon or Randyll Tarly

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: Lord Tarly is one of the Tyrell’s bannermen, even if they’re now allied with the Lannisters. Dickon is going to die, as well as his father, and Sam is going to have to leave the maister program to go back and lead the Tarly army.

The A.V. Club says: Sam’s a lover, not a fighter. That being said, it’s probably not a coincidence that the Tarlys popped up again last week.

25-1 Tormund Giantsbane

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Eckstein the oddsmaker says: He’s got stuff to do, but Eckstein the oddsmaker cannot reveal it. I will say I promise it’s not fake news.

The A.V. Club says: He could be in the action this week, we suppose.

8-1 The Field: Lady Olenna Tyrell, Arya Stark, Missandei, Euron Greyjoy, The Mountain, Eddison Tollett, Hot Pie

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Prophecies for profit:
Note: Bets placed here stay active throughout the course of the show.

What will happen at the meeting between Daenerys and Jon?

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3-1 They pledge to unite
5-1 Jon leaves without any agreement
10-1 They make sweet love
25-1 They get engaged
50-1 They become the new Regis and Kathie Lee

Previous prophecies for profit:

2-1 The Hound emerges victorious in CleganeBowl.
5-1 The Mountain emerges victorious in CleganeBowl.
10-1 Someone else wins CleganeBowl.
3-1 Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryen will sit on the throne together at the end of the series.
Over/under on episodes in which Cersei remains on the Iron Throne: 8.5.
Over/under on how many episodes until Jon Snow’s true parentage is revealed to him: 5.5.
2-1 Euron’s gift to Cersei will be one of the Sand Snakes.
3-1 The gift will be The Dragonbinder, a horn that the Valyrians made to bind dragons to the holder’s will.
4-1 The gift will be Lady Olenna Tyrell.
5-1 The gift will be an Ice Dragon.

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Over/under on total deaths of named characters this week: 2.5


Our picks this week are:

Leo Garcia ($166 Westerosi bucks in the Iron Bank): $5 on Yara, $5 on Ellaria, $5 on the Tarlys, $2 on Grey Worm, and $4 on the field, $10 on pledge to unite, $20 on the under. “All these people are going to die, I’m just not so sure it’s in this episode.”

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Marah Eakin ($140): $80 on Yara, $20 on Ellaria, $10 on the Tarlys, $10 on Grey Worm, and $10 on the field. “No risk, no reward.”

John Teti ($130): $20 on Grey Worm and $30 on the field.

Karl Blomberg ($130): $10 on Ellaria Sand, $10 on Jon and Danny pledging to unite.

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Emi Tolibas ($125): $35 on Tyene Sand, $35 on the field.

Danette Chavez ($90): Is out of town and behind, so forgoes betting this week.

Erik Adams ($80): $30 on Ellaria, $20 on Tyene, $10 on Yara, $10 Jon and Dany unite.

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Grace Thomas ($60): $15 on Grey Worm, $20 on Yara, $5 on the under for the field and $5 on Jon and Daenerys pledging to unite.

Josh Modell ($60): $30 on Yara, $30 on Grey Worm. “I’m gonna go out in a blaze of glory! If I lose ’em both, I’m done.”

Caity PenzeyMoog ($60): $5 on Grey Worm, $5 on Ellaira, $5 on Tyene, $5 on Melisandre, $5 on uniting, $5 on the over, $5 on the field.

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Alex McLevy ($55): $10 on Daenerys and Jon uniting, $10 on Yara, $10 on Melisandre.

Kristi-Lynn Jacovino ($50): $5 on the over, $5 on a united Jon and Dany. “I’m holding out hope for Yara and I need a win.”