You Win Or You DieThe A.V. Club’s weekly dead pool where we place our bets on who we think will die in this week’s Game Of Thrones episode.   

Olly’s death might have been brutal on last week’s Game Of Thrones, but there was a bright side to it: A bunch of us made big fat fake Westerosi fortunes. Editor-In-Chief John Teti is leading the pack, thanks to his $79 bet on Olly’s demise. At 25-1 odds, that netted John $1,975, a hefty profit that he can use to roll into an even bigger fake bankroll in the weeks to come.

But who cares about last week? Let’s talk about this week. Once again, nationally syndicated oddsmaker Benjamin Eckstein is back, taking time off from his job at America’s Line to answer our dumb questions about a silly TV show. His dead pool odds are below, along with a new section we’re calling “prophecies for profit,” in which we’ll present odds for things that could happen at any point during the season.

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2-1 Ramsay Bolton

The oddsmaker says: He’s definitely going because he’s so evil. It’s just a matter of when. Will it be this episode? I hope so. I know he’s going to do something bad to either Rickon or Osha, so that’s why I have them all pretty close.

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The A.V. Club says: He is certainly the worst, but is this his week? Depends on whether you think the fix is in courtesy of Rickon, Osha, and Smalljon Umber. Either way, you have to get up pretty early in the morning to get one up on ol’ Evil Ramsay.

3-1 Rickon Stark
4-1 Osha

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The oddsmaker says: These guys are the second and third favorites to get it during this episode. Something bad’s going to happen with Ramsay, and it’s either Osha or Rickon leaving in this episode, at the very least.

The A.V. Club says: Something bad happening seems like an absolute certainty, provided we get back to that scene this week. But while Ramsay does like killing people, it seems like he might delight even more in punishing Osha and Rickon over a longer period of time. Rickon, at the very least, could be used as a bargaining chip—not that Ramsay bargains.

8-1 Tommen Baratheon

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The oddsmaker says: Not the favorite, but still the most annoying kid I’ve seen in a long time.

The A.V. Club says: He’s annoying, for sure, but he’s also harmless. Who would kill this gnat?

8-1 Theon Greyjoy
10-1 Yara Greyjoy
15-1 Aeron Greyjoy

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The oddsmaker says: Theon has done what he had to do, so he’s either going to do something bad or get killed. I’d like to see Yara do some good stuff, but the Greyjoys look like they could be in a little bit of trouble. Aeron, I try to say who’s the most important and how the story will work, so that’s what I think there.

The A.V. Club says: Considering the trailer for this week’s episode shows some business going down in the Iron Islands, it seems like a safe bet that one of the Greyjoys could go. The real question, as Eckstein points out, is who. Do you bet on newcomer Aeron? Does Yara have the strength and fortitude to persevere?

10-1 Smalljon Umber

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The oddsmaker says: He did not kneel to Ramsay, so my thought is that he’s part of the conspiracy theory and he’s going to be one of the ones that’ll attack or do something to Ramsay. He might get killed, but I think Ramsay’s going to get it first.

The A.V. Club says: The kid who plays Rickon told The Huffington Post that his direwolf, Shaggydog, is actually dead in that closing scene, but Kit Harington also told the whole world Jon Snow was gone for good for ages, and we know how that ended up.

10-1 Khal Moro
10-1 Grey Worm

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The oddsmaker says: It’s not mandatory that they die, but I wouldn’t mind if they die.

The A.V. Club says: Daenerys is getting out of that widows hut one way or another. If Khal Moro has to go, then so be it. Grey Worm, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be doing anything dangerous in Meereen, so he’s probably fine.

15-1 Eddison Tollett
15-1 Tormund Giantsbane

Eddison, with dead Jon Snow

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The oddsmaker says: That’s medium-sized odds. Obviously, Eddison is a warrior, and what’s going to happen now with Jon Snow leaving? We’re not sure. Is he going to take over the Night’s Watch? It seems like one or the other will go, depending on when they have that battle they’ll have. I just don’t think it’s going to happen in this week’s episode.

The A.V. Club says: If Eddison stays with the Night’s Watch, he’s probably safe for now. Tormund will probably go with Jon, who might take off with the wildlings. He’s a fighter, though, so he’ll probably be kicking for a few more episodes, at least.

15-1 One of the wolves dies

Nymeria

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The oddsmaker says: There is a slight possibility that one of them could go protecting or saving the life of Jon Snow or Bran or whatever.

The A.V. Club says: Only three of the original six wolves are still alive: Jon’s Ghost, Bran’s Summer, and Arya’s Nymeria, who’s reportedly somewhere in the Riverlands. Summer’s safe, Ghost is a fighter, and Nymeria—well, who knows about Nymeria. She’ll show up again someday, but probably not this week.

20-1 Walder Frey

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The oddsmaker says: I don’t really like him that much, but I don’t think he’s ready to go. He hasn’t done anything at the moment to deserve instant death, though he does deserve it at some point along the line.

The A.V. Club says: He hasn’t shown up at all this season. Now that his daughter and grandson are dead at Ramsay’s hand, maybe he’ll pop in for a quick vengeful visit.

20-1 Loras Tyrell

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The oddsmaker says: It’s not the time yet for his death.

The A.V. Club: Honestly, who even knows if this dude is still alive?

25-1 Littlefinger

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The oddsmaker says: He’ll get his somewhere along the line, but not this week.

The A.V. Club says: Agreed. He’s supposed to pop up in this week’s episode, but Littlefinger’s death would be a whole affair, not just something tossed off mid-season.

25-1 Qyburn
25-1 Ellaria Sand
25-1 Any one of the Sand Snakes

Qyburn with some Little Birds

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The oddsmaker says: They haven’t seen much light in the past couple of episodes. Those girls are fabulous. The mother is evil, but the girls are special, so I’d like to see them around for a while.

The A.V. Club says: It does seem likely that the Sand Snakes will persevere even if Ellaria perishes. They’ll use her memory to fight on. But aren’t they okay in Dorne? Or are they going to leave to go after Cersei even more? If they wanted to do that, they could probably go through Qyburn—literally, as in, they could run him through with a spear.

25-1 Gilly

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The oddsmaker says: Don’t really care one way or the other. Not that important.

The A.V. Club says: It would seem especially unfair if pure and sweet Gilly got killed. Then again, when has that ever stopped George R.R. Martin and company?

50-1 Samwell Tarly
50-1 Randyll Tarly

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The oddsmaker says: People know that Sam will be important to Jon Snow at some point in time, so there’s a low probability that he goes this week.

The A.V. Club says: That’s probably true about Sam, but given how shitty Randyll has supposedly been to Sam in the past, some shit could go down there—and soon.

30-1 Ser Gregor Clegane (a.k.a. The Mountain, a.k.a. Robert Strong)

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The oddsmaker says: I don’t think that it’s time for him to go at this point in the show.

The A.V. Club says: Probably true, but wouldn’t it be great if he just up and exploded?

30-1 No one on our list dies

Image by Nick Wanserski

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The oddsmaker says: The list is extensive and fabulous, so this seems like a long shot.

The A.V. Club says: Flattery will get you everywhere, but it is entirely possible that we missed someone, or that Thrones could just have an especially benevolent week.

50-1 Robin Arryn

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The oddsmaker says: There are other people who could be deader quicker than Robin.

The A.V. Club says: Robin is a frail idiot who’s been put under Littlefinger’s tutelage. There’s no love lost there, so let’s just say we’re not making any plans for Robin’s graduation party.

50-1 Davos Seaworth

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The oddsmaker says: He needs to be around, and he’ll stay around to help Jon Snow. He’ll find him somehow.

The A.V. Club says: Fair enough. Though, he can probably just run behind him out of Castle Black’s gate.

Prophecies for profit: (Note: These can happen at any point over the course of the season.)

3-1: Rickon’s direwolf did not really die. It’s a trick!

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The oddsmaker says: “What is dead may never die.”

The A.V. Club says: The actor said his wolf is really dead, even if the head looked a smidge tiny for a direwolf.

Previous prophecies:

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3-1 Daenerys Targaryen sleeps with Khal Moro, and then kills him
6-5 The Hound comes back to life

Over/Under on deaths in this week’s episode: 3 ½
(Note: Characters must have names. They can’t just be extras.)

Our picks this week are:

John Teti ($2,055 in his bank): $200 on any of the Sand Snakes, $100 on Tormund, and $75 on nobody from the list dies.
Katie Rife ($325): $10 on Rickon, $10 on Osha, $20 on no one on our list dies, and $20 on the under. “Big money.”
Marah Eakin ($208): $50 on the over, $20 on Robin, $20 on no one on our list, $10 on Osha. “I’m liking that 3.5 number, especially once you realize how many Thrones characters have actual names.”
Erik Adams ($195): $30 on the under.
Josh Modell ($185): $50 on the under.
Danette Chavez ($110): Nothing. “I’m behind an episode, so I’m opting out this week.”
Alex McCown ($90): $5 on Osha, $5 on the under.
Nick Wanserski ($75): $20 on Osha, $20 on the under, and $20 on no one. “May my lack of confidence in my own decision-making catapult me to wealth.”
Caity PenzeyMoog ($62): $10 on Loras Tyrell, $5 on Robin Arryn, $5 on the over. “Let’s see some boy blood this week.”
David Anthony ($40): $40 on the over. “If I’m going broke, then I’m going out in a blaze of glory.”

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